In a sample of 10 cards

2018 Handbook

2018 Test A Math · Question 21 of 57

Also in 2026 Practice Test A Math, question 19; 2025 Practice Test A Math, question 21.

Question

In a sample of 10 cards, 4 are red and 6 are blue. If 2 cards are selected at random from the sample, one at a time without replacement, what is the probability that both cards are not blue?

A $\frac{2}{15}$
B $\frac{4}{25}$
C $\frac{3}{10}$
D $\frac{1}{3}$

Show the answer

Correct answer: A

The probability that both cards are not blue is the same as the probability that both cards are red. There are 4 red cards out of the 10, so the probability of the first card being red is

$\frac{4}{10}$

Now there are 9 cards left, and 3 of those are red, so the probability of the second card being red is

$\frac{3}{9}$

Multiply the two probabilities to find the probability that both cards are red (not blue):

$\left (\frac{4}{10} \right )\left ( \frac{3}{9} \right )=\frac{12}{90}=\frac{2}{15}$

Question analysis

This probability question draws 2 cards, one at a time and without replacement, from 10 cards: 4 red and 6 blue. Students find the chance that neither card drawn is blue. The second draw has one fewer card, and the word not changes which color to count.

NYS standards: 7.SP.8a compound event as fraction of outcomes
7.SP.8b sample spaces for compound events
Grade level: Grade 7 content, by NYS standard
Compared with grade 7: Above grade 7 Grade 7 compound probability is usually found with a list or tree of equally likely outcomes. Dependent draws without replacement, plus a negative phrasing to translate, go beyond that typical work.
Estimated difficulty: Hard: combines ideas, needs a plan, and has more than one tempting wrong answer.
Thinking it demands: Depth of knowledge 2, skills and concepts · mainly apply
What makes it hard: Something you must already know moderate
A very close wrong answer moderate
Turning words into math minor
An answer in an unexpected form minor
Solution: 3 steps
Reading level: Question and choices: about grade 5, 39 words.
Students, last 30 days: Not enough answers yet to show (it takes 10).

Why it is hard, traps and wrong answers (shows the answer)

Why it is hard

Two ideas stack here: restating not blue as red, and changing the second draw's numbers after a card is removed. Students who know to multiply but forget the removal reach a listed choice, and so do students who compute both blue. Writing the second fraction explicitly as 3 red out of 9 cards, before multiplying, is what separates right from nearly right.

Something you must already know moderate Working it out
Multiplying the first draw's chance by the second draw's, with the second adjusted for the card already taken, is a rule the test assumes and does not give. (Anderson & Krathwohl, 2001)
A very close wrong answer moderate Choosing the answer
2/15 and 4/25 are about 0.13 and 0.16, too close to tell apart by estimate; only the second draw's fraction, 3 red of 9 cards rather than 4 of 10, separates them. (Embretson & Wetzel, 1987; Gorin & Embretson, 2006; Ascalon et al., 2007)
Turning words into math minor Understanding the question
"Both cards are not blue" has to be restated as both cards red, and the bold not also invites computing the chance that both are blue. (Hegarty, Mayer & Monk, 1995; Koedinger & Nathan, 2004)
An answer in an unexpected form minor Choosing the answer
The product comes out as 12/90, and it has to be reduced to lowest terms before it matches any of the listed fractions. (Enright, Morley & Sheehan, 2002)

Strategy: Restate not blue as red, then multiply the chance of red on the first draw by the chance of red on the second, with one card fewer.

Traps

Without replacement: In a second pick there is one fewer item, which changes the probability.
Misreads the question: Misses or misreads a condition or a word in the question: "at least", "each", "remaining", "not".

The wrong answers, classified

B Without replacement (Fischbein & Schnarch, 1997)
Reveals partial knowledge Expected pull: strong
Multiplies 4/10 × 4/10 = 16/100 = 4/25, as if the first red card were put back before the second draw.
C Little reason to choose it (Haladyna & Downing, 1993; Rodriguez, 2005)
Reveals a surface strategy Expected pull: weak
No standard working gives 3/10: it is not the chance of red or of blue on one draw or on two, so it mostly catches guesses.
D Misreads the question (Hegarty, Mayer & Monk, 1995)
Reveals a slip Expected pull: moderate
Computes the chance that both cards are blue, 6/10 × 5/9 = 30/90 = 1/3, missing the bold word not.

How the questions are analyzed, and the research behind it

Worked solution, step by step

Formulas used

Probability: $P = \frac{\text{favorable}}{\text{total}}$; P is the probability, the chance that something happens. Favorable is the number of ways to get what you want, here a red card. Total is the number of all possible picks, here all the cards you can pick from. It works when every pick is equally likely.
Two events in a row: $P(\text{A and B}) = P(\text{A}) \times P(\text{B after A})$; A is the first event and B is the second. P( ) means the probability of what is inside. The chance that both happen is the first chance times the second. For the second chance, count only what is left after the first event.

Sort out the question
There are 10 cards: 4 red and 6 blue. You pick 2 cards “one at a time without replacement”. That means the first card is not put back. “Both cards are not blue” means both are red, since red is the only other color. You need the probability, or chance, of that.
Find the chance the first card is red
4 of the 10 cards are red. Each card is equally likely to be picked. Use the probability formula.
$P(\text{red first}) = \frac{4}{10}$
Find the chance the second card is red
One red card is gone now, and it is not put back. So 9 cards are left, and 3 of them are red.
$P(\text{red second}) = \frac{3}{9}$
Watch out: using 4/10 again acts as if the card went back. That gives 4/25, choice B.
Multiply the two chances
Both cards must be red. So multiply the first chance by the second. To multiply fractions, multiply the tops, then multiply the bottoms.
$\frac{4}{10} \times \frac{3}{9} = \frac{4 \times 3}{10 \times 9} = \frac{12}{90}$
Simplify the fraction
None of the choices is 12/90, so simplify it. Divide the top and the bottom by 6, the biggest number that goes into both.
$\frac{12 \div 6}{90 \div 6} = \frac{2}{15}$
Watch out: the chance that both are blue is $\frac{6}{10} \times \frac{5}{9} = \frac{1}{3}$ , choice D. The question says not blue. So the answer is A, $\frac{2}{15}$ .

Check your answer

Count the ways. There are $10 \times 9 = 90$ ways to pick two cards in order. Red then red has $4 \times 3 = 12$ ways. That gives 12/90, or 2/15. The answer is small, which makes sense, because there are fewer red cards than blue ones.

The original DOE question

Question 78 as printed on page 85 of the DOE handbook. — As printed in the DOE’s Specialized High Schools Student Handbook 2018–2019, page 85, question 78. Open page 85 of the handbook (PDF) The handbook letters this question’s choices E–H; here they are A–D (E = A, F = B, G = C, H = D).